The 81st Annual Academy Awards will air on Sunday, February 22nd at 8 p.m. PST live on the ABC network. There will most likely be lots of buzz after the show, and hopefully lots of hookers doing coke off of the winners’ dicks. But that we already know about, what we don’t know yet are who those dicks will be attached to, so Behind the Hype is taking a stab at Oscar predictions. Chances are, whether we are right or wrong, there will unfortunately be no hookers in our future – we’re going to be too busy boozin’ it up. Now that we’ve covered the three major food groups – hookers, coke & booze – on to the predictions!

Actor in a Leading Role

And the nominees are…

Richard Jenkins The Visitor

Mickey Rourke The Wrestler

Sean Penn Milk

Brad Pitt The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frank Langella Frost/Nixon

Redmanthatcould’s Prediction

In my opinion, Frank Langella should not have been nominated for his role in Frost/Nixon. Langella did an amazing job, don’t get me wrong, but he only had a couple legitimately powerful scenes. I would have liked to have seen Leonardo DiCaprio nominated for Revolutionary Road instead, but I am an admitted DiCaprio fan boy. I thought his role was more griping, and moved the audience emotionally.

It’s great to see the Academy willing to look beyond history and politics, and put two controversial actors in the leading role category – Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. But as I wrote in my review of Milk, I was certain no one else would one-up Penn’s role as Harvey Milk, and I was right. Sean Penn will win for best actor.

Teabag Rhino’s Prediction

Well, the underdog here for me is Richard Jenkins for The Visitor. His performance, despite going relatively unnoticed, was executed with perfection. The film itself was not spectacular but Jenkins, more commonly known for his dramatic turn as a psychiatrist in There’s Something About Mary?… WTF? Anyway, for his performance alone, this film is worth watching.

Who shouldn’t get it? In my opinion, Brad Pitt underwhelmed as Benjamin Button and shouldn’t even be nominated…his best performance my ass! Who will get it? Well, I’m going to have to disagree with Redmanthatcould on this one. Mickey Rourke is my pick. Let’s hope the censors are standing by…

Actor in a Supporting Role

And the nominees are…

Josh Brolin Milk

Robert Downey Jr. Tropic Thunder

Philip Seymour Hoffman Doubt

Heath Ledger The Dark Knight

Michael Shannon Revolutionary Road

Redmanthatcould’s Prediction

Josh Brolin has really started to grow on me, with his roles in American Gangster and No Country for Old Men, but he’s not winning this award. Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder? Don’t even get me started. Just as I am gay for DiCaprio, I am equally gay for Philip Seymour Hoffman, who has solidified himself as being able to play any role immensely well. Even though I love Hoffman for his roles in Capote, The Big Lebowski, and many more, he was nothing special in Doubt.

In my opinion, this award really comes down to Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight, and Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road. Not a lot of America knows how fucking awesome Shannon is, but hopefully they got a nice glimpse after this role. Unfortunately for him, his break-out role occurred the same year that Ledger’s did, and Ledger died a young, untimely death. No way, no how Ledger does not win. Heath Ledger will win for best supporting actor.

Teabag Rhino’s Prediction

As far as Robert Downey Jr. goes… since when does the Academy give two shits for a fantastic comedic performance, or in this case, a mediocre one. Jim Carrey got overlooked for his most brilliant performance to date in Eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind because it was classified as a Musical/Comedy, and Man on the Moon where he eerily mirrored eccentric comedian Andy Kaufman…fuck you Oscar!

Now back to reality, I don’t know why we are even debating this? Heath Ledger will win. If he doesn’t, I predict war in the middle east, plague, famine, and the second coming of Christ…

Actress in a Leading Role

And the nominees are…

Angelina Jolie Changeling

Melissa Leo Frozen River

Meryl Streep Doubt

Anne Hathaway Rachel Getting Married

Kate Winslet The Reader

Redmanthatcould’s Prediction

I don’t feel I can thoroughly comment on this category, since I’ve only seen two of the five movies, and have no fucking intention of seeing the other three. That being said, I felt Angelina Jolie did the best acting of her career in Changeling. She delivered her lines with sincere conviction – it really felt like she was the woman who lost her son. From my limited knowledge of the movies in this category, I give the nod to Jolie with an asterisk.

Teabag Rhino’s Prediction

Anne Hathaway… *Gagh* I just threw up in my mouth. Sorry don’t get it, never will. Meryl Streep has been here before, and will be here again (the “it’s nice to have even been nominated” group, that is) She’s fantastic, but not this year, sorry. It’s definitely a toss up between Jolie and Winslet. Both gave amazing performances in two rather different roles, but I see gold in Kate Winslet’s future because the academy loves when adults have sex with children… right?

Actress in a Supporting Role

And the nominees are…

Amy Adams Doubt

Viola Davis Doubt

Marisa Tomei The Wrestler

Taraji P. Henson The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Penelope Cruz Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Redmanthatcould’s Prediction

There was very little acting in Doubt that I thought was right on. Hoffman and Meryl Streep are typically amazing, and I thought they both came up a little short. Which probably left the door wide open for Amy Adams, who most certainly stole the show in this movie. Adams has some really stiff competition going against Marisa Tomei’s performance in The Wrestler, but I like going for the underdog. This being Adams’ second nomination for a Supporting Role, the second time is going to be the charm, and she will walk away with the Oscar.

Teabag Rhino’s Prediction

I would love to see Taraji P. Henson win this one. She outperformed Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and was one of the only reasons I sat through it. Unfortunately, she won’t. This is one of those annual pat-on-the-head Oscar nominations that ultimately never go any further than just that, a nomination.

I believe Amy Adams is a better bet than Marisa Tomei here. But beware, Penelope Cruz may very well walk away with it. I for one, wouldn’t be surprised.

Cinematography

And the nominees are…

Changeling

The Dark Knight

The Reader

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Slumdog Millionaire

Redmanthatcould’s Prediction

At first, I had no hesitation picking the winner for this category, and just as I was going to write it up, something hit me. It seemed like a no-brainer to go with The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, since the movie spanned so many different sets, scenery, and was just so damn visually memorizing. But then I thought – wait a second – I absolutely loved the lighting in Changeling, and thought the look and feel were perfect for the era the movie was trying to portray. What I thought was my easiest decision so far, ended up not being easy at all. Changeling wins for best cinematography.

Teabag Rhino’s Prediction

And the award goes to… Shane Hurlbut for Terminator Salvation. His uncanny ability to hold back and not slap Christian Bale in the face with his penis is truly amazing, even as Bale terrorizes the set and screams obscenities at everyone working on the film… what… oh, he’s not nominated… the film hasn’t come out yet? Well, he should get some kinda God Damn award… now to business.

This is a tough one for me as well. Being the fan boy I am, I would love The Dark Knight to win something else besides Ledger’s Supporting Actor gold, but deep inside, I know it really wasn’t as good in this category as the other films. As much as I was just, eh, about Button, I think it’s a strong option here. But there’s this little nagging feeling in the back of my mind. I can’t ignore it, so… because the gritty, and at times, shocking beauty of Mumbai was realized with such care and precision, I give this one to Slumdog Millionaire.

Directing

And the nominees are…

Frost/Nixon

Milk

The Reader

The Curious Case> of Benjamin Button

Slumdog Millionaire

Redmanthatcould’s Prediction

Danny Boyle made something absolutely magical with a cast of Indian actors that was both special and surreal. Not only did he work with a cast of no-name actors, but he also had to make masterful scenes with children, and he did not miss a beat. Yes, Milk and Frost/Nixon were both moving, and beautifully put together, but neither film had legitimate uphill battles; they both were filled with eloquent acting, and stories that are relevant to American pop culture. Boyle hit his home run telling us a fictional story about an Indian boy (in India), who is fighting for his life, while he’s fighting for his love. Slumdog Millionaire wins for best directing.

Teabag Rhino’s Prediction

Ron Howard pulled an incredibly rich film out of a seemingly one dimensional idea. Frost/Nixon really shined, but for all the reasons Redmanthatcould already said, Slumdog Millionaire was, by far, my favorite film this year. Danny Boyle told an amazing story so articulately. He took an unfamiliar place and unfamiliar characters and put the viewer right in the midst of the chaotic struggle of life in Mumbai and in no time, we were running alongside these characters as if we had known them all along. I hope for a Slumdog win, but given Hollywood’s need to be politically relevant, Milk and Gus Van Sant walk away with gold here. Gus Van Sant picked the right time to tell the right story. Milk’s relevance pushes Van Sant to the front of this pack for me.

Best Picture

And the nominees are…

Frost/Nixon

Milk

The Reader

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Slumdog Millionaire

Redmanthatcould’s Prediction

The highly-coveted best picture award. Filmmakers work their whole lives to reach this goal, while others come out of the blue and shock everyone. This year’s class of finalists does not seem as difficult as last years, with No Country for Old Men squaring off with There will be Blood, but that’s not to say it’s an easy decision. Benjamin Button is way over-hyped, and should have never made it to this point; Changeling should have been here in it’s place.

For me, I ultimately have two winners in mind – one that should win, and one that will win. Slumdog Millionaire, in my opinion, should win, but I think the award will ultimately go to Milk. That’s not to say Milk is not worthy of the award, but it just seems the victory will come too easy to them after all the talk about gay marriage on this year’s ballots.

Teabag Rhino’s Prediction

The Reader is the sleeper here. Not much attention has been paid to this film. It just might surprise us all… but not likely. If, and I say IF The Curious Case of Benjamin Button wins the coveted best picture award, I will immediately light my TV on fire, not waiting for an acceptance speech. I will then proceed to find every voting member of the Academy who voted for it and promptly shit on their lawns. That being said, I think my television and their lawns are safe… for now.

I agree that the two front runners here are Slumdog Millionaire and Milk. And like Redmanthatcould, I want Slumdog, but will graciously accept a Milk victory. I hope that a gold statue for Milk will open eyes, and that in fact, it will become an even more politically relevant film. The issues raised in the film are very real. This is the Civil Rights Movement of our generation. Milk will not be the only film to document and dramatize these events. This just might be the right time for a politically fueled win here, and for once, I’m okay with that.

Milk tells the true story of of the political career and influence of the first gay man to hold a high position in government, Harvey Milk. The film stars Sean Penn, who plays Harvey Milk, with supporting roles from James Franco, Emile Hirsch, Josh Brolin, Diego Luna and Alison Pill. We travel back to the 1970s to see how Milk influenced the gay movement both in California and the entire country. Milk was easily the best film of the year so far, and unless Frost/Nixon blows it out of the water, it will more than likely win best picture of the year. If you are not a big time movie goer, you still need to find a way to watch Milk in theaters. Penn put on an amazing performance, so even if you can’t stand him as a man, you will be incredibly impressed at his acting. Not being a huge Penn fan in years past, it wouldn’t be fair of me to say it was his best acting role ever since his last film I saw was 21 Grams, but I’m sure it ranks highly nonetheless.

Milk Movie Poster

The film starts off in 1978, where Harvey is speaking into a recorder, talking about his life and political career. We are told the story from Harvey’s point of view, and we are occasionally cut back to the scene of him sitting in his kitchen, talking into this recorder. Early in the film, Harvey’s narration begins in 1970 where he meets the love of his life, Scott Smith (played by Franco), and they start their life together on famous Castro street in San Francisco, California. After moving in together, they opened a shop called “Castro Camera”, where they were greeted by another local business owner who told them:

…there’s man’s law and god’s law. The San Francisco police will be happy to enforce either.

This was the first sign of prejudice in the film, with many more scenes of hatred to come, especially from government officials and the San Francisco Police Department. Funny how many see San Francisco as a gay utopia, without understanding it took beatings, blood, threats, and deaths to get to the safety & warmth it now brings the gay community. Prior to his political career, Milk was an inspirational leader to the gay population in San Francisco. He made a list of gay-friendly shops which would thrive with business, while those not friendly to homosexuals would close down. After an all-out street beating from the SFPD against gay citizens on the charges of “blocking the sidewalk”, Harvey made it so everyone in the community would wear whistles whenever they went outside; if a whistle blew, it meant someone was in danger and help was on the way.

In 1974, Harvey decided to run for one of the six open seats to the board of city supervisor, backed by the love and energy of Scott and a close group of supporters. Harvey lost, but not by much, coming up tenth out of 32 candidates who ran. A year later, he ran for the same position, getting more votes but losing another political race. Throughout the film, we see real news clips from the CBS evening news with Walter Cronkite, discussing the gay movement in various parts of the country. We also see real news clips following the crusade of famous actress, Anita Bryant, who was set on getting any anti-discrimination laws towards homosexuals overturned. Anita Bryant helped get a law reversed in Dade County, Florida, which allowed for equal rights for purchasing property. She was one of the main contributing factors to Harvey’s motivation to keep pursuing a position of government office.

Even though Harvey’s 1976 campaign “Harvey Milk vs The Machine”, it was the closest he came to victory. After the city re-positioned the district borders, it would be an easy victory for Harvey in 1977 because now all he had to do was win over the gay and hippie vote. Scott could not take another campaign, so he left Harvey’s life, but not for good. Enter Jack Lira (played by Luna), who was Harvey’s next boyfriend. Jack was more of a nuisance than anything else, but Harvey liked the fact that he didn’t have to talk politics with Jack, and it was all just happy-go-lucky. For the 1977 campaign, Harvey hires Anne Kronenberg (played by Pill) to be his campaign manager. Kronenberg is a young lesbian woman, who had a solid track record of getting things done. Her first major victory for the campaign was getting an endorsement from The Chronicle newspaper, which strongly helps Harvey win the election in 1977.

Harvey Milk with Mayor George Moscone

After winning the position of Supervisor of City & County of San Francisco, Harvey had three main people to battle. He wanted to go head-on with Anita Bryant, had a weird relationship with fellow Supervisor, Dan White (played by Brolin), and needed to destroy State Senator John Briggs (played by Denis O’Hare) in public debates. Harvey was at ends with White because White seemed like he was an ally in private, but always opposed him in public. The main conflict in the film was based around Proposition 6, which was put on the ballot by Senator Briggs. This proposition asked for all homosexual teachers in public schools to be fired, including anyone that associated themselves with homosexuals. Sounds pretty ludicrous, and almost “believe it or not” status, other than the fact that we just had Proposition 8 pass in California in early November. Proposition 6 had lots of backing, and was leading heavily before Harvey decided to take the battled from San Francisco to all of California.

Shortly after Harvey’s gay rights ordinance passed 10-1 in San Francisco, with Dan White being the only dissenting vote, Harvey wanted to battle Senator Briggs in public debates throughout California. With the help of his right-hand man, Cleve Jones (played by Hirsch), and Mayor of San Francisco George Moscone (played by Victor Garber) Harvey was able to get his wish. Not only did they debate in areas with lots of Milk supporters, but they also traveled to Orange County where Proposition 6 was heavily in the lead to pass. You may remember O’Hare from his role in Changeling earlier this year; he played his role as Briggs beautifully. You really wanted to hate Briggs, and I really liked how he stuttered in debates when Milk put the screws to him on an issue. The rest of the film is yours to experience without explanation; it gets much more powerful.

Brolin is slowly but surely making a big name for himself. Last year he had important roles in No Country for Old Men and American Gangster, and he followed it up with big roles in W. and now Milk. Emile Hirsch plays a very energetic and passionate political aide, helping Harvey in the latter stage of his career. I really like how he played this character, and he was also very good in Imaginary Heroes, where he had a larger part. Stealing the show was obviously Sean Penn. Keep in mind that playing this role perfectly meant always speaking with a very slight accent / lisp, and using effeminate mannerisms, in every scene. There were also several romantic scenes with lots of kissing and groping – not exactly the easiest thing for a straight man to deliver flawlessly, but Penn’s performance did not waver. Many scenes are tear-jerkers, and I didn’t really have to guess since the girl sitting next to me was evidence enough.

Harvey Leading a March with Cleve

Milk was filled with emotion, strong feelings, and superb acting. Expect Sean Penn to win for best actor, and unless Frost/Nixon is more powerful, Milk will also win for best picture. I want you to see it…I want your family and friends to see it…I want their family and friends to see it. My only issue with the film is the release date. Why did the executives behind the film decide to release it at the end of November, rather than early October. It sincerely bothers me to think it was released now for “Oscar Season” rather than when it could have helped destroy Proposition 8 in California. Hopefully it was done for non-selfish reasons, but I went ahead and sent this to Focus Features to see if they have an answer. Should they respond, I will post it below.